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Scenario lab

Try the numbers before risking money.

Change the assumptions and explore how trade size, prices and losing streaks affect the results. Hypothetical simulation. Not actual signal performance or a forecast.

Losing streaks

How long could a losing streak last?

Choose a hypothetical win rate and number of trades. See how losing streaks can still happen and how their cost changes with the amount at stake.

Explore losing streaks

How many losses could come in a row?

A made-up simulation, run 2,000 times. The win rate is your guess, not a measured number and not a prediction.

one example run of 60 trades. Longest losing run: 3

Typical worst run
4the middle result
1 in 10 times
6+or worse
Worst we saw
10in 2,000 runs
How often each streak length showed up
0 in a row: 0 of 2000 runs1 in a row: 0 of 2000 runs2 in a row: 80 of 2000 runs3 in a row: 647 of 2000 runs4 in a row: 706 of 2000 runs5 in a row: 365 of 2000 runs6 in a row: 129 of 2000 runs7 in a row: 41 of 2000 runs8 in a row: 23 of 2000 runs9 in a row: 8 of 2000 runs10 in a row: 1 of 2000 runs012345678910losses in a row

At 65% over 100 trades, 6 losses in a row happens about 1 in 10. At $100 a go, that's −$600 lost across that streak. This is a hypothetical result, not a prediction.

Step 4 of 6Next up: The bet sizer →

These results depend on your assumptions. They are not a forecast of the bot's performance.

Become an InsiderYou will continue to Whop to review and pay.
Trade size

See what a losing streak would cost.

Enter an amount and compare the cost of several losses. This calculator helps explain the arithmetic; it does not recommend a stake for you.

What “your usual bet” means in dollars

Decide how big one bet is before a card asks for one.

One bet is
$10.00
Contracts at $0.70
14
Really at risk
$9.80

A “half your usual bet” card would mean 7 contracts. Whole contracts only. The change stays in your pocket.

Step 5 of 6Next up: The scenario lab →
Simulated outcomes

Explore a range of possible results.

Set a win rate, price, trade size and number of trades. The simulation shows different paths those assumptions could produce, including losses. It cannot cover every possible outcome.

Hypothetical simulation. Not actual signal performance or a forecast.

Example setups

Illustrative coin-flip: the assumed win probability equals the entry price, so there is no edge before costs. Hypothetical simulation, not a forecast.

What the pretend account starts with.
A guess, not a measured number.
So 71 means $0.71. Pays $1 if it wins, nothing if not.
Turned into whole contracts. No borrowing.
An example fee, taken when you buy.
One after another. Max 1000.
Each one independent. Max 2000.
Same seed, same result. Change it to reshuffle the dice.

Your edge: 0 points over the price.

Middle result$980-2.0% on $1,000
Most ended between$752 and $1,365-25% to +37%, 9 in 10 runs
Ended with less54.0%of 500 bankrolls
Ran out0.0%all could still afford a contract
Your money over time, across every run
5–95th 25–75th median start
$700$800$900$1,000$1,100$1,200$1,300$1,400020406080100120140trade number
hover or tap the chart to read a point
Example runs:
Where the runs ended up
below start at or above
0%4%8%12%$561 – $605: 2 paths (0.4%)$605 – $649: 3 paths (0.6%)$649 – $693: 3 paths (0.6%)$693 – $736: 15 paths (3.0%)$736 – $780: 36 paths (7.2%)$780 – $824: 36 paths (7.2%)$824 – $868: 47 paths (9.4%)$868 – $912: 28 paths (5.6%)$912 – $955: 66 paths (13.2%)$955 – $999: 34 paths (6.8%)$999 – $1,043: 26 paths (5.2%)$1,043 – $1,087: 77 paths (15.4%)$1,087 – $1,130: 22 paths (4.4%)$1,130 – $1,174: 16 paths (3.2%)$1,174 – $1,218: 19 paths (3.8%)$1,218 – $1,262: 18 paths (3.6%)$1,262 – $1,305: 13 paths (2.6%)$1,305 – $1,349: 10 paths (2.0%)$1,349 – $1,393: 5 paths (1.0%)$1,393 – $1,437: 8 paths (1.6%)$1,437 – $1,481: 4 paths (0.8%)$1,481 – $1,524: 8 paths (1.6%)$1,524 – $1,568: 3 paths (0.6%)$1,568 – $1,612: 1 paths (0.2%)$600$800$1,000$1,200$1,400$1,600

These paths come from the assumptions you selected. A profitable simulated run is not evidence that a strategy will work in a real market.

See what $100 a month gets you →
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Your practice tools

Keep exploring at your own pace.

Choose any tool to get started.
  1. Price and payoutopen →
  2. The read drillopen →
  3. Void or validopen →
  4. The losing streakopen →
  5. The bet sizeropen →
  6. The scenario labopen →

See how the signals fit together.

You will continue to Whop to review and pay.

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